climate

Plugging the Coming Jevons' Carbon Leak

Jevons Paradox applies across energy types which means that for cheap solar energy to reduce carbon consumption, we need a floor price on oil.
The above sentence pretty much summarizes this entire article but is almost incomprehensible, so now I'm going to spend a stack of words unpacking it.

20 predictions for the year 2020

As I did last year, I'm going to make predictions regarding the upcoming year of 2020. These are ONLY predictions for this coming year, not for the whole decade. I'm also going to endeavor to make more predictions, so that I can do a better job calibrating off of them. Last year I only made 6 predictions, and they were also spread across too many likelihood percentiles to really use for calibration. This year I'm trying to make 10 predictions with 90% likelihood and 10 with 80% so that I can do a better evaluation at year end.

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