After a little time off of doing these perdictions, and generally off of writing and bloging, I really wanted to get these in. I'm in the middle of cleanup and reconstruction of my website to have it be entirely Web3, so things are a mess in this space right now and it's also not my priority, but I thought I would just slam out some predictions and see how I do.

My intent is to come back to this some time mid-year and clean up the formatting, maybe also to write some explinations for my thinking when I have a few minutes. I don't know we will see.

April Checkin: Still not getting around to formatting, but I'm going to drop in and add a few comments under some predictions

Inflation rate over 7% (year average) 90%
April: we are over 8.5% so it looks prety sure that this one is going to happen. I think there is also a lot of inflation hiding in the Owners Equivalent Rent noise

Unemployment rises (end of year) (currently 3.9%) 90%
Labor Force Participation Rate Rises (End of year) (Current 62%) 90%
New major Covid Variant (after Omicron) 90%
April: I'm not sure if this *quite* counts, but BA2 seems like it probably cuts the mustard. Honestly when I wrote this I was expecting one to show up in October and really make the rounds in Dec. I'm still sort of expecting that to happen

New Vaccine released 90%
Wildfires in CA over 3MM acers? 90%
Red gains control of House 90%
Red gains control of Senate 90%
China doesn’t invade anyone 90%
Dow Jones Up 90%

Inflation rate over 10% (year average) 80%
Cat 5+ Atlantic Huricane 80%
Biden Approval Rating below 44% (Current 43%) 80%
April: Looks likely, he's currently at 41%. This was intended to mean "on Dec 31", so data now doesn't really mean much of anything

Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine 80%
April: Whoopsies! I had toyed with putting this in the 70% section. I'm honestly still shocked that this happened, and don't really know how to update my worldview to correct for it. I think I assume everyone else thinks more like chess players than they do

Fed Interest Rate up 80%
Bitcoin Down 80% (from $47,733)
Ethereum Down 80% (from $3,767)
Eth/Btc ratio down 80%
My family and I spend at least 4 months living outside USA 80%
Malaysia opens to US Tourists 80%
April: Yep, opened up on April 1st

Inflation rate over 12% (year average) 70%
April: This seems really unlikely at the moment. We will see

Chinese economy down 70% Combine SSE (stock market, currently @ $3580)
April: I have learned a little more and really wish I had used the "Hang Seng Index" which I think would be more representitive. Either way this looks like it will happen for sure. The only reason I had this down in my 70% bracket was because I really don't know what I don't know about china.

My family and I are in another country for Newyears 70%
Ethereum Below $2,500 70%
Cat 5+ Atlantic Hurricane makes Landfall 70%