Submitted by giblfiz on Thu, 01/02/2020 - 04:49
As I did last year, I'm going to make predictions regarding the upcoming year of 2020. These are ONLY predictions for this coming year, not for the whole decade. I'm also going to endeavor to make more predictions, so that I can do a better job calibrating off of them. Last year I only made 6 predictions, and they were also spread across too many likelihood percentiles to really use for calibration. This year I'm trying to make 10 predictions with 90% likelihood and 10 with 80% so that I can do a better evaluation at year end.
Submitted by giblfiz on Fri, 12/27/2019 - 19:59
I have taken a hit from some of my favorite bloggers (Scott and JMG) and started doing recorded yearly predictions, along with evaluations. In 2019 I made Six Predictions which I evaluate below:
Submitted by giblfiz on Mon, 01/07/2019 - 07:07
I rather enjoy the game of trying to guess what the year to come will hold. Usually I feel like a lot of other people are playing along with me, but this year has been oddly silent.
So let me start by making some guesses, followed by the likelihood I attach to them, and some explanation :
