politics

Map of the Future: May-Dec 2020

funny image of Covid-19

This document was written on May 4th, 2020

This is a predictive roadmap, with a lot of guesswork in it. It is fairly USA-centric, but will glance at some other locations I am forming opinions about as well.

20 predictions for the year 2020

As I did last year, I'm going to make predictions regarding the upcoming year of 2020. These are ONLY predictions for this coming year, not for the whole decade. I'm also going to endeavor to make more predictions, so that I can do a better job calibrating off of them. Last year I only made 6 predictions, and they were also spread across too many likelihood percentiles to really use for calibration. This year I'm trying to make 10 predictions with 90% likelihood and 10 with 80% so that I can do a better evaluation at year end.

Evaluated: 2019 Predictions

I have taken a hit from some of my favorite bloggers (Scott and JMG) and started doing recorded yearly predictions, along with evaluations. In 2019 I made Six Predictions which I evaluate below:

A few words about politics

Etymology is fascinating with, particularly how words continue to echo their origins long after you would have expected drift to completely separate them. Reflecting on current and previous meanings of words helps me think about things in a new and useful light. There are a few words in politics that I think can use a little bit of inspection right now.

How would you change the U.S. Government?

A friend of mine recently posted the question on facebook "If you could change one thing about our government, what would it be?"

I think it's a wonderful question, and really enjoyed reading other peoples answers, as well as coming up with my own. I have more than one answer myself, and I also feel like the ways in which I agree and disagree with some other people's suggestions reveal some interesting principals about how I think.

Six 2019 Predictions

I rather enjoy the game of trying to guess what the year to come will hold. Usually I feel like a lot of other people are playing along with me, but this year has been oddly silent.

So let me start by making some guesses, followed by the likelihood I attach to them, and some explanation :

Aboriginal Dreamtime and Demographic Empowerment

demographic selection

The Australian aborigines refer to a specific state of altered consciousness as “the dreamtime”. The dreamtime has little to do with dreaming, it is a totally wakeful state of consciousness, where the person in the dreamtime becomes the archetype of all of their ancestors performing an action. For instance, if Fred the hunter were hunting, and entered the dreamtime, he would stop being “Fred” and become purely “the hunter”, a composite of spirit of all his ancestors and decedents hunting. A key thing here is that in the dreamtime he is not “a hunter”, but he is “the hunter”.

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