At the beginning of 2022 I made predictions . Now at the end, I'm checking in to see how I did. I try to do this every year (https://7goldfish.com/articles/2020_prediction_evaluations.php , https://7goldfish.com/articles/2019_prediction_evaluations.php )
This part at the end is the most important part, this is where I learn something about my views and how they fit the world.
Inflation rate over 7% (year average) 90%
YESHonestly
Unemployment rises (end of year) (currently 3.9%) 90%
NOCurrently 3.7%. I was expecting a much more aggressive set of layoffs than we have seen and expecting them earlier. I keep thinking that other people are going to see the same trends I see, and react more aggressively to them.
But then apparently, I'm wrong a lot more than I think.
Labor Force Participation Rate Rises (End of year) (Current 62%) 90%
YES on a technicality..62.1%
I was way overconfident on this one, given how poorly I understand the number and how it is generated. Basically, I got lucky.
New major Covid Variant (after Omicron) 90%
Maybe? Yes?Honestly, I can't decide if BA2 should properly count as a new variant or not. It's a sub-variant of omicron, which, I guess, counts as a mutation. I think from my reading that it has dominated out Vanilla omicron, but honestly, I'm having trouble finding stats because nobody seems to care.
New Vaccine released 90%
YesThe bivalient booster was released in Augst: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-moderna-pfizer-biontech-bivalent-covid-19-vaccines-use
Wildfires in CA over 3MM acers? 90%
NOhttps://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2022/
I'm WAY off on this one. about 0.35 MM acres, putting me off by a full order of magnitude. I think I got complacent in this prediction after the last few giant wildfires and thought that they would be clockwork every year. I think I'm going to read up and investigate how rain early in the year affects the fires later.
Red gains control of House 90%
YESThough not the huge swing I was betting on. Honestly, compared to predictions, Blue did *great*
Red gains control of Senate 90%
NOSo, I feel dumb because I remember when I was writing this thinking, "I'm sure Red will take the Senate, and I'm EVEN MORE sure that Red will take the house" but here I am with them marked at the same 90%
Again, I'm glad to see that Blue did better than expected, and managed to eke out a tie.
China doesn’t invade anyone 90%
YESWell, thank goodness! I think after seeing how Russia went, we can be extra sure this won't happen for a good long time. I think I also understand the military situation around Taiwan a little better, and this makes me even more confident that China won't actually try an invasion
Dow Jones Up 90%
NODown from ~36k to ~33k
Inflation rate over 10% (year average) 80%
NOI have a much better respect for how the inflation numbers get created now. Basically, the way things are cooked it would be VERY hard to break 10% because of the Owner's Equivalent Rent ( https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/owners-equivalent-rent.asp )
They have been doing it this way forever though, so I can't really accuse them of cooking the books. It does mean that the reported inflation rate always moves around really slowly.
Cat 5+ Atlantic Hurricane 80%
NOTwo Cat 4s, A mild year all around.
Biden Approval Rating below 44% (Currently 43%) 80%
YESHe's at 43%
Honestly He's doing way better than I thought he would be in the polls. I think this is basically a combination of the Russian War and the overturning of Roe V Wade
Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine 80%
NOI am still shocked that this happened, and it's going even worse for Russia than I thought it would. This was an obvious strategic disaster.
There is an interesting remaining question as to if Russia can win the war it started, but it was well beyond the point of being a pyrihc victory for Russia by the time the war had lasted one month.
Fed Interest Rate up 80%
YESWe have gone from 0.08% up to 3.78% and have every indication that it's going to keep right on rising thru next year. I thought I saw some chance that the FED would behave badly and try to keep the economy burning hot despite inflation, but I'm happy that they didn't.
Bitcoin Down 80% (from $47,733)
YESWay down at around $16,800. It's crypto winter, as I have been expecting forever now. It's also sort of hilarious to hear everyone saying that crypto is dead forever (again)
Ethereum Down 80% (from $3,767)
YESYep: $1,217
Eth/Btc ratio down 80%
YES (bairly)We have gone from .082 to .072. Honestly I was expecting a bigger swing to come with Crypto-Winter.
My family and I spend at least 4 months living outside USA 80%
NOWe did about a month and a half. Then my son got pretty sick and it sort of shut down the next six months. We also are still struggling with Visa's
Malaysia opens to US Tourists 80%
YESWe even went. Still no luck on the long-term visa though. The MM2H program is a bureaucratic joke.
Inflation rate over 12% (year average) 70%
NOHonestly, this still doesn't feel as crazy as it sounds. This is close to what the inflation rate for food reached during the worst months (over 11%)
understanding the OER B.S. I think I realize that this would have been much harder to get to for overall official inflation.
Chinese economy down 70% Combine SSE (stock market, currently @ $3580)
YESDown to $3,054
In the future I am going to use the Hang Seng Index (HSI) which went from $23,500 down to $19,600.
Every indication is that China is going to be in for multiple years of financial decline. Their real estate bubble burst, They have a huge demographic problem, and because of the factory shutdowns, lots of manufactures is realizing that they are not a stable partner and is diversifying out.
My family and I are in another country for Newyears 70% NO
I have reached the point where I no longer believe that it is possible to get a Malaysian visa thru the MM2H program. I'm going to refocus my efforts on trying to get into Singapore instead.
Ethereum Below $2,500 70%
YES
Yep, way down there, as expected. Welcome to crypto winter, it's a cold one!
Cat 5+ Atlantic Hurricane makes Landfall 70%
NO
Wow, really mild this year!
How did I do?
The short answer is really badly. I think I drifted into aggressive overconfidence somewhere along the line.
90% chance: 6/10. This should ideally be 9/10. This is HORRIBLE, I am way off.
80% chance: 6/10. This should ideally be 8/10, This feels less horrible.
70% chance: 2/5 . This should be around 3.5/5, This is damn bad as well.
What have I learned?
The first thing is that I'm overconfident. I need to pull WAY back on my certainty.
The second, specific, thing is that I need a more detailed model for wildfires in California. This will be forthcoming.
Third, Politics is just generally less predictable than I think. This includes choices to go to war and voting results.
Fourth, Inflation rates, employment rates, and similar are (and have been) cooked so hard for so long that in a lot of ways they don't respond to actual movement in the measured substrate very much. Just because a cup of coffee suddenly costs $7.75 in SF doesn't mean that we acknowledge higher inflation.
I have reached the point where I no longer believe that it is possible to get a Malaysian visa thru the MM2H program. I'm going to refocus my efforts on trying to get into Singapore instead.
Ethereum Below $2,500 70%
YESYep, way down there, as expected. Welcome to crypto winter, it's a cold one!
Cat 5+ Atlantic Hurricane makes Landfall 70%
NOWow, really mild this year!
How did I do?
The short answer is really badly. I think I drifted into aggressive overconfidence somewhere along the line.
90% chance: 6/10. This should ideally be 9/10. This is HORRIBLE, I am way off.
80% chance: 6/10. This should ideally be 8/10, This feels less horrible.
70% chance: 2/5 . This should be around 3.5/5, This is damn bad as well.
What have I learned?
The first thing is that I'm overconfident. I need to pull WAY back on my certainty.
The second, specific, thing is that I need a more detailed model for wildfires in California. This will be forthcoming.
Third, Politics is just generally less predictable than I think. This includes choices to go to war and voting results.
Fourth, Inflation rates, employment rates, and similar are (and have been) cooked so hard for so long that in a lot of ways they don't respond to actual movement in the measured substrate very much. Just because a cup of coffee suddenly costs $7.75 in SF doesn't mean that we acknowledge higher inflation.