Evaluated: 2019 Predictions
I have taken a hit from some of my favorite bloggers (Scott and JMG) and started doing recorded yearly predictions, along with evaluations. In 2019 I made Six Predictions which I evaluate below:
1) There will be major mudslides in California. (90%+)
Correct: https://www.newsweek.com/mudslides-map-2019-wildfire-malibu-california-c... (though honestly less severe than I thought they would be )
2) Trump will NOT be removed from office by impeachment (90%+)
Correct: Note that I was very specific about the "removed from office" part. The senate remains, in my view, an impossible hurdle for the task of removing Trump.
3) The government shutdown will be resolved by February 1st (80%)
Correct: Resolved on Jan 25th. Note that this felt like a controversial prediction at the time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_United_States_federal_gove...
4) There will be at least one category 4+ Atlantic Hurricane (80%)
Correct: Dorian ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian )
sub-prediction:There will be one category 4 hurricane that makes landfall as a category 4+: 50%
Correct: Dorian in Grand Bahama
5) The DOW will be higher Jan 1 2020 than Jan 1 2019 (75%)
Correct: Went from ~$23k to ~$28k. I most assuredly didn't expect a 20%+ gain. Honestly even though I got this one right I feel like I'm taking crazy pills
6) 1 Bitcoin will be worth more than $5000 on Jan 1(70%)
Correct: From around $3,600 to around $7,200
Sadly what I care about (price of Ethereum) went from $133 to $124. I'm not sure why the decoupled, and particularly not sure why the did so to ETHs detriment. I still think of ETH as the stronger tech with the stronger position.
so how did I do?
Not as well as it looks like I did! yes I got everything "right" but because I was giving out 80% and 70% likelyhoods to a bunch of things, that means that I'm not actually being appropriately confident in my predictions. I'm not actually sure how to do a reasonable job with the statistics on this, but it's pretty clear that I need to up my confidence level in my next set of predictions. (or go farther out on a limb with some of them)
I'm also going to make an effort to make a few more predictions in my next prediction post, as well as trying to get my fingers into some slightly more interesting stuff.