January 2020

Dog With Cancer Wins the Superbowl

I'm always interested in what advertisements get run during the super bowl. I think that in general you can pick up a lot of information about the zeitgeist from watching them. I was interested to see a post on reddit mentioning that this year a guy is buying a $6 million dollar spot thanking vet's for saving his pet dog's life. This obviously feels odd.

20 predictions for the year 2020

As I did last year, I'm going to make predictions regarding the upcoming year of 2020. These are ONLY predictions for this coming year, not for the whole decade. I'm also going to endeavor to make more predictions, so that I can do a better job calibrating off of them. Last year I only made 6 predictions, and they were also spread across too many likelihood percentiles to really use for calibration. This year I'm trying to make 10 predictions with 90% likelihood and 10 with 80% so that I can do a better evaluation at year end.